By Scott Hamilton, President, Hamilton Resource Economics Note from Geoff Vanden Heuvel, MPC Director of Regulatory and Economic Affairs
I wrote about this issue in last week’s edition of the Friday Report. In the article below, Dr. Scott Hamilton provides additional analysis about the current Delta outflows. In addition to being a trained economist, Dr. Hamilton is an expert on the delta smelt, and has published several peer-reviewed articles in scientific journals about the issue.
On February 10, 2025, flows from the Sacramento River through the Delta were increasing following a series of storms in Northern California. Delta outflow—flows out to the Pacific Ocean on that day were estimated by the Department of Water Resources to be 197,700 cfs. On that same day, the State Water Project pumps were operating at 1,800 cfs. SWP operations achieved the unique distinction of pumping less than 1/100th of the water that was flowing out to the ocean. Why? It wasn’t due to physical capacity — the pumps were capable of moving 5.5 times that amount. It wasn’t a permitting issue either, as they were authorized to pump 3.5 times that volume. And it wasn’t a lack of downstream storage—San Luis Reservoir was not yet full and even if it were, huge volumes could be sent to groundwater recharge facilities.
The anomaly was driven by two factors. First, a restriction on flows heading to the pumps. To protect endangered fish, flows toward the State and Federal pumps are capped at 5,000 cfs during the first half of the year. During very wet periods this restriction is not necessarily limiting because the San Joaquin flows are usually high, and the pumps can operate at their permitted capacity by pumping San Joaquin River water which does not count against the 5,000 cfs limit. In this particular case, however, the storms hit Northern California and not the watershed of the San Joaquin River. Flows on the San Joaquin River into the Delta were a meager 1,300 cfs.
Ironically, on January 31, 2025, Governor Newsom issued an executive order to maximize the capture of stormwater. Specifically, the order said:
“The Department of Water Resources is directed to take all feasible and appropriate action to maximize diversions of excess flows that become available as a result of the anticipated winter storms, and other winter storms, to storage, including storage in San Luis Reservoir.”
Newsom went on to direct his resource agencies to identify obstacles hindering this objective and to promptly report barriers to his office.
While DWR had identified flows toward the pumps as limiting exports, it was not specific as to which species was their immediate concern. Presumably, it was delta smelt. That is problematic for three reasons. Delta inflows of this magnitude will push most of the delta smelt westward, away from the pumps. Second, this winter, only 9 delta smelt were detected at the pumps —all at the federal pumps and none at the state pumps. The actual loss of delta smelt is likely much higher, maybe 30 times higher, because many delta smelt are lost to predators before reaching salvage facilities. Third, the delta smelt population is now being sustained by hatchery fish. One hundred thousand delta smelt were added to the estuary this winter. Therefore, the loss of 300 fish at the pumps is being mitigated with 100,000 introduced fish.
Why then is pumping being limited to reduce the take of hatchery fish when they are so easily replaced?
The governor’s executive order received predictable opposition from environmental organizations claiming the Newsom’s approach threatens to harm vulnerable fish species and the deteriorating ecosystem of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. If that claim sounds empty, it is.
Four hundred-thousand-acre-feet of water per day are flowing out into the ocean. So, how does pumping 4/100ths of the Delta outflow harm the Delta ecosystem? Extensive measures, including population supplementation with hatchery fish, are being implemented to help native fish populations. The environmentalist position lacks balance and damages their credibility. Certainly, improvements in the Delta are needed to sustain native fish. Promoting ridiculous positions on resource management is not one of them.
What is at stake? “The Ripple Effect” from CalChamber highlights how water policy impacts Californians’ standard of living. Read it here.
